Every withdrawal rate, at once.

Withdraw a fixed % of the starting balance in year one, then the same dollar amount adjusted for that year's actual inflation every year after — the original 4%-rule definition, not a moving % of the current balance. A run "survives" a horizon if the balance never hits zero within it.

Stock returns are real S&P 500 total returns, 1928–2025 (NYU Stern / Damodaran). Bond returns are an intermediate-term government bond proxy, built by rescaling the real long-term T-Bond series to match the published SBBI intermediate-term mean and volatility, since a free year-by-year intermediate series doesn't exist publicly. Inflation is actual annual-average CPI-U for every year, 1928–2025 (usinflationcalculator.com, based on BLS data).

Unlike the first version of this page, nothing here is precomputed or looked up from a table — your browser re-runs the actual year-by-year simulation (starting balance, withdraw, apply that year's real market return, adjust for that year's real inflation, repeat) for every bar and every cohort, live, from the raw 1928–2025 return and inflation series embedded in this page. A starting year with an incomplete horizon (not enough years of real data yet) is shown as "not enough data" rather than guessed at — unless it already ran out of money for real within the years we do have, in which case it's counted as a real failure.